The start of 2026, and indeed most of 2025, have been characterised by regular upheavals so large, one could be excused for almost forgetting one of the biggest upheavals of this decade: the war in Ukraine. While the battle seems to be heating up, with Russia losing up to 1000 soldiers a day for an average of 15-300 meters a month on some fronts and Ukraine facing an imminent energy collapse during the coldest season of the year, it would rather seem these are the final spasms of a frozen conflict. The first tentative meetings between Ukraine, Russia and the US have been progressing and are nearing a conclusion if Western leaders are to be believed, and talks are set to continue through early 2026. Of course, anything could happen but given the economic and demographic states of both countries, either one will crumble or they will agree to a peace deal. The question then is if President Vladimir Putin believes Ukraine is more likely to break than Russia, and how he stacks those odds against the inevitable collapse of the Russian economy following the war, whether they win or not.
In the midst of this tense stand-off, the supporters of Ukraine continue their diligent work as if the war will continue forever. As part of this, Sweden announced on February 1st that they are preparing their largest military aid package in support of Ukraine so far, which is saying a lot considering the Nordics’ enthusiastic support for Ukraine in general. While not finalised, this package includes air defence, radars, Gripen and finally, the Meteor. The Meteor is a missile developed by MBDA and first used by a Jas 39 Gripen and is generally considered to be NATO’s most capable operational air-to-air missile. For Ukraine, who were snubbed in their campaign for the highly sought-after Tomahawk missiles, this may provide some comfort. But what does the “deal” entail?
What the Missile Is, and What the Deal Is
The theme of this package is air defence, particularly in strengthening Ukrainian capabilities against the ballistic missiles that continue wreaking havoc on the country’s fragile electrical grid. It is unspecified which specific systems are being discussed, but some of it may come from extra funding towards the PURL initiative, where willing countries can purchase US-made systems for Ukraine. Furthermore, there are talks of providing unmanned systems such as long-range drones, which could assist in the effort to target Russian oil refineries far behind enemy lines. Sweden also intends to assist with radars for airspace surveillance and additional electronic warfare systems to disrupt Russian drones, missiles and communications. While nothing is set in stone, this comes after talks with Ukrainian representatives and provides an interesting insight into Ukrainian needs, and possibly future strategies.
Sweden and Ukraine struck a deal in 2025 to expand the Ukrainian air fleet with an order of 100 to 150 Gripens, with the first aircraft hopefully arriving as early as this year. It is only natural then that the Meteor system, which is best used with European fighter jets such as the Gripen, Rafale and Typhoon, would also come up. It is designed with a powerful ramjet propulsion system and active radar seeker, which gives it the power necessary to engage deep in the action. It is considered the best of its class in NATO, largely thanks to its long range and larger than average no-escape zone, which is the region of airspace where a missile has a high probability of intercepting and killing a target aircraft, even if the target detects the launch and takes evasive action. A Gripen could carry up to seven of these missiles, depending on the model. However, there is a limited stockpile of Meteors, and the number needed to significantly change the shape of the battlefield in Ukraine while also maintaining military readiness at home in the Nordics is not a trivial issue. Furthermore, the Meteor needs to be fitted and integrated into the jets, which is easily doable with the Gripen but not so for the F-16s Ukraine currently operates, so the missiles can’t be operational until the first deliveries have been made.
What It Means for Us
For the Nordics, this is one more signal of our strong support for Ukraine. As the populations of the Nordics still see the defence of Ukraine as a deterrent to future Russian aggression, this is unlikely to affect Nordic citizens in any substantial way. However, future budgetary issues may cast some doubt on their generosity, especially as the Nordics seek to rearm themselves after decades of disrepair and budget cuts. Another part of the package revolves around setting up and expanding Ukrainian defence production within Swedish borders. This will likely make Sweden a target for further hybrid attacks, although which form they may take is up for debate. Currently, it involves cutting subsea cables, which though annoying hasn’t caused significant disruption yet, and the scrambling of jets every once in a while, but may in the future involve direct sabotage to the factories and infrastructure. Particularly vulnerable are train tracks, which may see sabotage in the future if historical data is anything to go by, especially as the long stretches of unguarded tracks make them the perfect targets for hybrid warfare.
As part of this package, however, Sweden is considering joining the Brave1 platform, a defence-tech cluster backed by the Ukrainian government in which Sweden would co-finance defence startups and other projects to test immediately on the battlefield. This could hopefully lead to more defence-tech innovation in Sweden, which would assist Sweden’s own rearming, on top of gathering indispensable operational data.
However, Ukraine may not even get the chance to use them at all in the current theatre. More trilateral talks are set to be held this week, with Ukraine recently announcing guarantees from its allies within the framework of a ceasefire (giving Russia 72 hours to back off before the US joins the battlefield). However, Nordic weapons were always designed with the hope that they’d never have to be used, and for future deterrence the Meteor and Gripens will be a necessity. Ultimately, an agreement all comes down to Russian willingness, not Western. Is Putin ready to end the war he started, and take home a pyrrhic “victory”? Only time can tell, but for the sake of an exhausted Ukrainian society to have some relief, we can only hope.